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Predicting the survival or failure of click-and-mortar corporations

Dec 04, 2004

IEEE Computational Intelligence Chapter (Hong Kong) successfully hosted a seminar on 4th December 2004. The topic was 'Predicting the survival or failure of click-and-mortar corporations: A data mining approach' given by Dr. Indranil Bose, Associate Professor, from School of Business, The University of Hong Kong. The event was fruitful and beneficial to all participants.

Theme: With the boom in e-business, several corporations have emerged in the late nineties that have primarily conducted their business through the Internet and the Web. They have come to be known as the dotcoms or click-and-mortar corporations. The success of these companies has been short lived. This research is an investigation of the burst of the dotcom bubble from a financial perspective. Data from the financial statements of several survived and failed dotcom companies is used to compute financial ratios, which are analyzed using three data mining techniques - discriminant analysis, neural networks, and support vector machines to find out whether they can predict the financial fate of companies. Neural networks perform the task better than other techniques. Using discriminant analysis and neural networks, the key financial ratios that play a major role in the process of prediction are identified. Statistical tests are conducted to validate the findings.